With the increasing cost advantages of technologies such as wind power, photovoltaics and energy storage, the share of global coal-fired power will be further squeezed.
On June 20th, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) released the latest long-term analysis report of the global power system, "2018 New Energy Market Long-term Outlook (NEO)" (hereinafter referred to as "Report"), said that by 2050, photovoltaic and wind power generation will It accounts for about 50% of the world's total power generation, and the share of coal electricity will be reduced from the current 38% to 11%.
According to the report, the proportion of renewable energy in many power markets will increase significantly in the future. By 2050, renewable energy will account for 87% of total electricity generation in Europe, 55% in the US, 62% in China, and 75% in India.
According to the "Report", in 2018-2050, the world's new power generation investment will be 11.5 trillion US dollars, of which 8.4 trillion US dollars (about 73%) for wind power and photovoltaic, and another 1.5 trillion US dollars (about 17.86%) for other zero-emission technologies such as hydropower and nuclear power. BNEF believes that these investments will increase global PV installed capacity by 17 times and wind power installed capacity by 6 times.
Statistics from the International Energy Agency (IEA) show that in 2017, the global installed capacity of the photovoltaic market will reach 99GW, and the cumulative installed capacity will reach 402GW. In 2017, the global wind power market installed a new installed capacity of 52.57GW, with a cumulative installed capacity of 539.58GW.
The rise in the proportion of wind power and photovoltaics is mainly due to the rapid decline in their own costs and the decline in battery storage capacity that provides flexibility for the power system.
The "Report" predicts that in 2018-2050, the new photovoltaic power plant's leveling power cost (LCOE) will be reduced by 71%, and the cost of onshore wind power will be reduced by 58%. The LCOE of these two technologies decreased by 77% and 41% respectively during 2009-2018.
The cost of leveling electricity covers all cost elements of a new power generation project, including development and construction costs, operations and maintenance, fuel and financing costs.
According to BNEF's report on Leveling Power Cost (LCOE) released in March this year, in the first half of 2018, the global onshore wind level standardization power cost was $55/MWh, down 18% year-on-year; untracked solar energy The cost of photovoltaic leveling has also fallen by 18% to $70/MWh.
In China, according to statistics from the Photovoltaic Industry Association, in 2007-2017, the cumulative cost of photovoltaic power generation in China has dropped by about 90%. According to the data of the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of the end of 2017, the investment cost of the domestic leading enterprise photovoltaic power generation system dropped to about 5 yuan / watt, and the cost of electricity to electricity fell to 0.5-0.7 yuan / kWh.
The "Report" predicts that China will continue to maintain its leading position in the global wind and solar market in the future. By 2050, China will have 1.1TW of PV installed capacity and 1TW of wind power installed capacity, equivalent to 21% of global power generation and 33 respectively. %.
In addition, China's coal power generation and emissions will peak in 2030, when the penetration rate of renewable energy in China's power system will reach 39%, and the power generation will reach 23GW.
“In the long run, coal power will become the biggest loser. From the perspective of electricity cost, coal power will not compete with wind power and photovoltaics; from the perspective of system flexibility, coal power will not compete with gas power generation and energy storage. Ultimately, large Part of the coal-fired assets will be squeezed out of the market," said Elena Giannakopoulou, chief energy economist at Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
The Report predicts that coal consumption in the global power generation industry will fall by 56% and natural gas consumption will increase by 14% in 2017-2050.
